Politics
Politics
Reform third again in YouGov poll as Labour edges ahead before the Budget
Reform UK has now trailed both Labour and the Conservatives in the latest YouGov poll, its weekly voting intention survey, for two weeks running, according to the Independent, a result that lands after a bruising few days for Nigel Farage’s party and a week before the Budget.
What the YouGov poll found
The YouGov poll of 2,520 adults, carried out on 18 and 19 October, put Labour on 27 per cent, up three points. The Conservatives were unchanged on 23 per cent, and Reform rose one point to 22 per cent. The Liberal Democrats were on 11 per cent, down one, and the Greens on 10 per cent, down one. The Independent’s political editor describes it as Reform cementing third place, though a single point separates the Tories and Reform, which is well inside the range a YouGov poll like this can move from one week to the next. The full figures are on YouGov’s own results page.
Why the Reform result matters now
The YouGov poll follows an ITV film about Reform that was broadcast at the weekend, and the Independent links the figures to what it calls a week of damaging revelations. We have covered the questions about the party’s candidate vetting separately, along with how Reform responded once the film aired, and the poll should be read as one reading rather than a verdict: Reform’s own response to the ITV material is a matter for the party, and a few days of coverage does not always translate into a durable shift in support.
For Labour, the three-point rise in the YouGov poll is a welcome boost for Andy Burnham ahead of next week’s Budget. The Independent also notes that voters who had drifted to the Greens may be moving back, after Burnham said Labour would not do a deal with the party following its conference vote on a motion saying “Zionism is racism”. The Greens have faced a row over antisemitism, and their numbers have been sliding since.
What to watch after this YouGov poll
One poll is not a trend, and the gap between second and third is thin. The next YouGov poll and the Budget response will show whether Labour’s recovery holds and whether Reform can climb back past the Conservatives. Pollsters also differ in method, so the picture across several firms matters more than any single weekly number.
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